tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post1442491561311084573..comments2023-11-05T03:39:11.575-05:00Comments on The Technical Take: How Do You Get There From Here?Guy M. Lernerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-38140846830124555772009-10-16T14:45:20.298-04:002009-10-16T14:45:20.298-04:00Al,
I only disagree with you on one thing "....Al,<br /><br />I only disagree with you on one thing "...fear of being held to the call at a later date."<br /><br />Nobody (the media has the only 'real' voice) calls them on their mistakes.<br /><br />Prime example: Charles Nenner goes on CNBC & everytime proclaims his perfection. Nobody ever calls him on it...either because they're too lazy to do their homework or it's against Rolodex journalism.<br /><br />"Meantime you have to decide what to do when you are down 15%." <br /><br />Tim Ord has been short the SPX since 883.92. Every subsequent article has been another reason why the mkt was going down. No guidance about where the exit is for the less sophisticated.<br /><br />Btw, i am very technically inclined, but our criticisms are still valid.davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-58802508224674432992009-10-16T14:16:39.121-04:002009-10-16T14:16:39.121-04:00Wanted to follow up on my comment on TSO and your ...Wanted to follow up on my comment on TSO and your reply... another thing to look at for refiners is the crack spread. Please see following links if interested:<br /><br />http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/component/content/article/918.html<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=CRK321M1%3AINDJBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-36823274679474420852009-10-16T13:11:54.979-04:002009-10-16T13:11:54.979-04:00@dave
I agree on your thoughts regarding cyclists...@dave<br /><br />I agree on your thoughts regarding cyclists.<br /><br />Another lovely one is the self proclaimed "Trend Follower". An example of an exchange:<br /> <br />Media: So you are constructive on Gold, when do you think it will hit $1200?<br /><br />TA: Time is always the difficult component of a call. I will say that the 200-day MA is upward sloping and thus the trend is positive at this time.<br /><br />Note nothing truly concrete is said for fear of being held to the call at a later date. Gold could drop 25% then rally and the TA said he was right. Meantime you have to decide what to do when you are down 15%. <br /><br />Another beauty of sell side TA is the fact that a person can be Right on one call and be considered 'great'. Never mind that they were dead wrong on their previous calls - they got one right. <br /><br />My question - if a guy is right on calling Copper but wrong on the market or interest rates or the USD/EUR - isn't it just a coin toss? <br /><br />That is why I enjoyed the comments made here:<br />Make a Call<br />Give a Reason for the Call<br />Entry, Exit, Max Loss for the call<br />Time component.<br /><br />IF you think Stock X is going up because of Inflation and it climbs during a deflationary spiral - you are what I would call Lucky. Being Lucky is good but it doesn't mean your analysis was worth anything.Alnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-82678914248896856212009-10-16T12:36:03.792-04:002009-10-16T12:36:03.792-04:00Al,
"when you leave the 'TIME' compo...Al,<br /><br />"when you leave the 'TIME' component of the call wide open it GREATLY increases your chances of being right some day"<br /><br />That is especially true of cyclists. Price is a horizontal component; cycles are a vertical component. If you're long or short based on price you'd better know at what horizontal level that you're wrong. <br /><br />With the cyclists, they never draw that vertical time component about where the Rubicon lies. They just say the cycle inverted or that it was influenced by another cycle. Without the price component, one would get creamed. <br /><br />I have never heard or seen a cyclist say that they were "wrong". A popular prominent one this week looking for a top betw the 12th & 14th just updated that it may be the 19th. And price went against him the entire time. But his followers should give him more (vertical) time without a (horizonatl) price component.<br /><br />Your thoughts ?davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-34498555339423708072009-10-16T11:25:15.059-04:002009-10-16T11:25:15.059-04:00"One thing I learned early on in the stock ma..."One thing I learned early on in the stock market analysis game was that a "call" should have 4 components to it: 1) the entry; 2) the exit; 3) how much draw down one should tolerate to achieve their goal; and 4) how long it may take to achieve that goal. After doing this in a very public way for over 5 years, I am still amazed at how few analysts and pundits include these factors in their market "calls". I am even guilty of this at times."<br /><br />AMEN! Having worked as a sell side analyst for years I see this all the time and it sickens me more each year. Consider this - when you leave the 'TIME' component of the call wide open it GREATLY increases your chances of being right some day. Thus allowing you to 'sell' your research as valuable. Many Technical Analysts you see on CNBC, Bloomberg (and that even show up in II rankings) do this ALL the time. They are simply salesmen.Al said...noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-9724505546023161352009-10-16T07:52:36.963-04:002009-10-16T07:52:36.963-04:00Thanks for the links
I am long XLE -not as a prox...Thanks for the links<br /><br />I am long XLE -not as a proxy for USO - but more as a proxy to the SPY--these two have been highly correlated thus my reference to being involved with the market in a peripheral kind of way<br /><br />Of note, large cap oil actually has moderate insider buying which is rare in this market<br /><br />Of note #2, I remember looking at TSO several weeks ago and thinking I like the looks of thatGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-85904869072528778552009-10-16T06:30:24.031-04:002009-10-16T06:30:24.031-04:00Here are two links about issues with USO:
http:/...Here are two links about issues with USO: <br /><br />http://seekingalpha.com/article/117315-using-dbo-uso-and-oil-to-play-crude-oil<br /><br />http://www.philstockworld.com/2009/06/06/uso-all-of-the-drop-some-of-the-gain/<br /><br />I liked XOM's decent base (and what should be limited downside) and bought about the time you made your call. I missed out on adding DKA and TSO early this week but will wait for a pullback if I get one or else will pass.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-59106124953666441092009-10-16T03:52:30.042-04:002009-10-16T03:52:30.042-04:00"Oddly, our readers don't demand they do ..."Oddly, our readers don't demand they do so."<br /><br />That's because many readers aren't truly seeking profits. They're seeking that warm fuzzy, guru, Daddy, psychological validation, identify with, true religion feeling. Sad to say. Why else would bear blogs have so much traffic after 7 months of bull mkt ?<br /><br />"...it seems that these kind of price moves are compressed into shorter and shorter time frames"<br /><br />That wasn't the case before direct access trading - left click mouse. Trends took longer to unfold in those days.<br /><br />"...for another discussion at some other time" <br /><br />Guy, let's have that discussion. Look forward to it. Have lots of thoughts about that subject. I don't like having "to thread the needle" either.davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-44677008871055663042009-10-16T00:37:44.963-04:002009-10-16T00:37:44.963-04:00brian
I thought that was UNG only....can you refe...brian<br /><br />I thought that was UNG only....can you reference me a link here so I can learn more <br /><br />thanksGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-62873753415242034322009-10-16T00:34:57.906-04:002009-10-16T00:34:57.906-04:00Did you not know that USO is a flawed ETF? Since ...Did you not know that USO is a flawed ETF? Since it is composed of future contracts which must be rolled over, the contango is killing it right now. That is why it hasn't kept up with spot oil. I'd ignore the technical analysis from these flawed instruments like the USO, UNG and the 2x/3x levered ETFs (FAS, FAZ)brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09708785915172909184noreply@blogger.com