tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post215496809631771023..comments2023-11-05T03:39:11.575-05:00Comments on The Technical Take: Higher Yields, Lower Equities?Guy M. Lernerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-89951684451593094152010-03-29T04:33:28.743-04:002010-03-29T04:33:28.743-04:00Guy
Did you manage to access the link I provided...Guy <br /><br />Did you manage to access the link I provided?<br /><br />here it is again<br />http://www.financialsense.com/Market/pretti/2010/0305.html<br /><br />thanksD-mannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-3300366698303515452010-03-26T14:42:07.093-04:002010-03-26T14:42:07.093-04:00The increase in bond yields is a message from the ...The increase in bond yields is a message from the financial community, China, and Japan to the administration they didn't, and don't, like this continual spending after promising to make all further expenditures revenue/cost neutral. The health insurance care bill is NOT cost neutral! "Get your act together or we will demand more risk yield". If the 109 already passed bills that are to be attached to the healthcare insurance bill, do increase the expenditures, US bond and note interest rates will be forced upward by bond/note buyers. This will force Ben to increase the Fed rate which will further increase the street's inflation rate, then the few workers left will ask for pay increases, etc. etc. Ben is very very busy this moment monitizing the debt - isn't he?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-82505764032518969342010-03-26T14:37:02.511-04:002010-03-26T14:37:02.511-04:00Dacian
Can you provide the link again, please?Dacian<br /><br />Can you provide the link again, please?Guy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-40558759021782541442010-03-26T14:34:07.241-04:002010-03-26T14:34:07.241-04:00D-man
I would tend to agree and I believe I have ...D-man<br /><br />I would tend to agree and I believe I have stated before that the COT is very difficult to use; yet when I made the analysis of Treasury Bonds last time, I felt that going against the dumb money and with the smart money (i.e., commercials from the COT) was just one of the reasons of trying to resolve what has become a very difficult issue --that issue being higher yields v. lower yields....this week looks like higher yields will prevail<br /><br />I have tested the COT data out the wazooo, and it is probably no better than a 4-5 week oscillator in a bull market; in bear markets it is very sketchy<br /><br />On the trading system: I think what you are asking me is there a system where I combine the gold, crude, yield filter with the 40 week moving average of the SP500? The answer is yes; on the site see if you can find the two articles on developing a trading strategy because that is what I did; I need to do a third article on actually combining the two and the data is rather good on this as it turned in a return almost 2x buy and hold with about 15% draw down (i think); a fourth article would be comparing my work to some other strategy like the 10 month MA model; the model I have developed is actually better because it is less dependent upon a single trade<br /><br />I will look at the link you provided <br /><br />tanks for the feedbackGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-84622763904848015132010-03-26T12:06:59.892-04:002010-03-26T12:06:59.892-04:00ok, I wanted to say the new system will give
- pr...ok, I wanted to say the new system will give<br /><br />- price penetrates the 40 week MA<br />- we introduce the gold, oil & yields filter<br />- S&P percentage difference relative to 50 DMAD-mannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-34232253636644176282010-03-26T11:59:21.262-04:002010-03-26T11:59:21.262-04:00Guy, I just want that what we call smart money are...Guy, I just want that what we call smart money are not that smart; but strictly to your analysis, you call COT data smart; I commented here the COT doesn't offer an edge as most of the transactions the so called smart do are dark pools; so COT is of no value so to speak.<br /><br />As a side note I just went through an article of Brian Pretti (I like his analysis) on a sort of simple yet effective indicator for the S&P 500; its basically a nice way to use the 50 DMA. Have a look; you can integrate this with your "trading system" and it might get even more accurate; that will give<br /><br />- price penetrates the 40 week MA<br />- we introduce the gold, oil & yields filter<br /><br />here is our trading system<br />http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2009/12/developing-trading-strategy-part-2.html<br /><br />and here is Pretti's<br />http://www.financialsense.com/Market/pretti/2010/0305.html<br /><br />thanks for letting me know what you find, if it looks interesting to you, of course.D-mannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-13849552891011236162010-03-26T10:06:22.347-04:002010-03-26T10:06:22.347-04:00I see it this way.Hgher equities ,higher risk equa...I see it this way.Hgher equities ,higher risk equates to positive outlook for the basic economic activity. However ,if that holds true why would one wish to keep hoovering up record amounts of public debt are yields that guarantee a loss of capital ?<br />So, higher public debt yields to me means bond holders are striking for parity with economic growth. Of course the big question is how far can that go before it sinks economic activity and equities fold by implication.<br /><br />I'm neither bullish nor bearish on this situation as I think we are in for a game of push pull between the two which almost guarantees a fairly wide ranging market for them in the future. However, how you time that except using technicals I don't know.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-83714415097147276482010-03-26T09:46:41.150-04:002010-03-26T09:46:41.150-04:00D-man
I don't see your point? Please explain....D-man<br /><br />I don't see your point? Please explain...Guy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-68456095484542747522010-03-26T09:44:44.187-04:002010-03-26T09:44:44.187-04:00cow
they can (actually they do it: Japan & Chi...cow<br />they can (actually they do it: Japan & China buys USA's; USA's buys its own bonds); it will destroy currencies, but they sure can (and will). this is how these leaders function: they save their ass after creating the whole mess.<br /><br />Guy<br />"I still remain bearish on equities, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to remain bullish on bonds. In fact, the technicals now have me bearish on bonds. "<br /><br />Smart money, huh?D-mannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-48479523191638541372010-03-26T09:33:16.289-04:002010-03-26T09:33:16.289-04:00I don't know but I would refer you to article ...I don't know but I would refer you to article in this morning's WSJ on Treasury yieldsGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-18052181736613312762010-03-26T09:03:33.457-04:002010-03-26T09:03:33.457-04:00why would not the countries simply buy each others...why would not the countries simply buy each others debt to stave off a wreck for awhile? The would print money to buy the other countries debt and visa versa?cowcalfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06052168043790623458noreply@blogger.com