tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post2393759388994464472..comments2023-11-05T03:39:11.575-05:00Comments on The Technical Take: Bad Journalism and Bad AnalysisGuy M. Lernerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-75075623165227371412010-07-09T08:40:01.607-04:002010-07-09T08:40:01.607-04:00James:
1 more thing -- you made a forecast (S&am...James: <br /><br />1 more thing -- you made a forecast (S&P500 = 1500) and you have given your reasons (which are fine) but without any time constraints or without the context of time the forecast is meaningless<br /><br />It is like saying, "the sun will come out". Yes, we know that. But a forecast is "the sun will come out TODAY".<br /><br />There are two parts of any price chart: the y and x axis. You are only giving us the y part!Guy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-5714193560661162032010-07-09T08:22:17.001-04:002010-07-09T08:22:17.001-04:00James:
Do any of your points matter? Or are they...James:<br /><br />Do any of your points matter? Or are they reasons why the S&P500 should go to 1500? If we get to 1500, it will only be a matter of luck that your analysis will be associated with such a price move. Stocks could be cheap and the S&P500 could go to 1500 next month or 800 in 3 months. <br /><br />And I think that is the point you are missing...Once again, is this the kind of rigorous analysis that sells your hedge funds?<br /><br />About responding to your points specifically, I see no reason offering an opinion about those three points as I know little about the data so what would be the value in offering an opinion. They may be true but unlikely associated with SP500 going to 1500 (that is as far as I would go).Guy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-35778689656988414452010-07-08T21:52:29.063-04:002010-07-08T21:52:29.063-04:00James
I'm with you, as you know. The blog I ...James<br /><br />I'm with you, as you know. The blog I posted today shows that the P/E maybe as much as 30% under where it should be based on core inflation. I see the same old doom and gloomers predicting the end of the world. I don't believe they understand much about economics. Money eventually absolutely has to leave zero percent rates of return. It is just a matter of time. When people realize that the economy is going to grind along and not fall to pieces, stocks will take off. thanks for your interview. <br /><br />Greg Donaldson: www.risingdividendinvesting.comGreg Donaldsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09688745698459146868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-61266610225463163322010-07-08T19:19:28.623-04:002010-07-08T19:19:28.623-04:00Well, how about you actually respond to some of my...Well, how about you actually respond to some of my points:<br /><br />A) Valuations on 2010 earnings are well below historical averages<br />B) ISM leading indicators are showing expansion<br />C) Containerboard prices are rising, showing latent demand in shipping. <br /><br />I had a few more but maybe start with those in order to demonstrate your claim of "bad analysis". Your claim of "bad journalism" wasn't appropriate since I'm not a journalist.James Altucherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00313740091661856129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-84431265963022674632010-07-08T08:17:15.132-04:002010-07-08T08:17:15.132-04:00James:
The only case I am making against your poi...James:<br /><br />The only case I am making against your points is that I think you can do better than that; there did not seem to be any value in your comments that the S&P500 was going to 1500 -it was boastful and sensational....once again, without the context of time there was little value in the statement<br /><br />One question: is that all it takes to get investors in your fund of funds? Just make statements like that? <br /><br />I would hope not.... <br /><br />Hey, I showed you genuine respect for the things you do and have done because I thought it was appropriate and I still doGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-76607470166460278812010-07-08T07:50:15.646-04:002010-07-08T07:50:15.646-04:00Well, I guess I'm trying to understand:
A) Y...Well, I guess I'm trying to understand: <br /><br />A) You don't actually make any case against any of my points. You just say "bad journalism". You say I'm boastful but I'm just making points about the market. Which (now I'll boast) have so far been correct. <br /><br />B) A journalist reports the news. I'm a fund of funds manager and I run a VC fund. I'm being asked my opinion in those videos. Thats not journalism.James Altucherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00313740091661856129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-47765000384884586782010-07-07T22:13:11.798-04:002010-07-07T22:13:11.798-04:00Well Guy, I've been watching your advice and c...Well Guy, I've been watching your advice and comments over the past year and guess what, your commentary isn't exactly fully of insight either. Like missing something like 25% of the upside in the rally last summer. <br /><br />Obviously, the real money here is not in following advice but instead selling it.<br /><br />I don't think much of any financial journalism regardless. It's all a bunch of crap.Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14634537146306259690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-82229088773722998852010-07-07T22:11:18.789-04:002010-07-07T22:11:18.789-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14634537146306259690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-84367325245230688252010-07-07T21:56:00.974-04:002010-07-07T21:56:00.974-04:00James: it has to be journalism and of the hyperbol...James: it has to be journalism and of the hyperbolic type; I just don't see the value in making such claims<br /><br />Knowing the passion you probably bring to your work, I just don't think you need to bring yourself down to the level of a tonic salesman or QVC infomercialGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-25730629130827741642010-07-07T18:12:21.302-04:002010-07-07T18:12:21.302-04:00James, the value of the piece for anything other t...James, the value of the piece for anything other than as a journalistic thought provoking article leaves something to be desired as far as I am concerned. If it is not intended as journalism then pray tell what? I agree with the criticism of your article for investing purposes.Luv them Waveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05445541834922600594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-3992225394484886712010-07-07T16:09:09.285-04:002010-07-07T16:09:09.285-04:00I dont get it. You don't actually dispute any ...I dont get it. You don't actually dispute any of my points. How can you then say "bad journalism". Its not even intended to be journalism.James Altucherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00313740091661856129noreply@blogger.com