tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post3318658357330429056..comments2023-11-05T03:39:11.575-05:00Comments on The Technical Take: Investor Sentiment: Lots of BullsGuy M. Lernerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-41280862646138996462010-10-24T13:07:50.481-04:002010-10-24T13:07:50.481-04:00Jim
That is correct...the NYSE data is not longer...Jim<br /><br />That is correct...the NYSE data is not longer available --so much for transparency <br /><br />The SP100 data may not be what it use to be; this is highly volatile data set<br /><br />My take on the Dollar: it seems like a bounce is likely; commodities looking soft (copper is vulnerable, sugar is back to highs, gold should pullback, silver has gone crazy and needs to rest, etc)<br /><br />As far as QE2, see the article I wrote recently on higher yields; yes, it is priced in and several Fed officials have been speaking that it might be incremental and when they do yields move higher <br /><br />thanks for the comments on the blog!Guy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-80660695421343483252010-10-24T12:35:32.560-04:002010-10-24T12:35:32.560-04:00Another explanatory candidate for the seeming cont...Another explanatory candidate for the seeming contradiction between dumb and smart money sentiment is the change in data which you mentioned. <br /><br />I'm not sure which NYSE data is no longer available, but I guess you may be referring to the specialist buys, sells and short selling volume, which used to be published with a lag of a couple of weeks.<br /><br />The S&P 100 options may not be as good a proxy for specialist volume data as one might wish. All of the equity and index options, including the S&P 100, are probably infected with some 'dumb money' sentiment.<br /><br />Recently the S&P has exhibited strong inverse correlation with the dollar. Though there are plenty of fundamental reasons to be bearish on the dollar, bearish sentiment has become extreme. A pop in the dollar would not be favorable for stocks at this juncture.<br /><br />The wild card in the deck is QE2. Liquidity has to go somewhere, so why not into stocks? On the other hand, if the prospect of higher inflation spooks the bond market, this would tend to erode P/E ratios. I'm guessing that QE2, one of the most widely telegraphed moves in history, is largely discounted already.<br /><br />Buy the rumor, sell the news.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15746041341129724900noreply@blogger.com