tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post3344365960623298364..comments2023-11-05T03:39:11.575-05:00Comments on The Technical Take: Investor Sentiment: The Fat PitchGuy M. Lernerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-65477361222656493342010-06-01T18:36:30.132-04:002010-06-01T18:36:30.132-04:00Hey! How fat's that pitch now?Hey! How fat's that pitch now?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-61680835162486786342010-06-01T03:59:50.413-04:002010-06-01T03:59:50.413-04:00EURO VS USD MIGHT GET A BOUNCE FROM 1215000 AREA
...EURO VS USD MIGHT GET A BOUNCE FROM 1215000 AREA<br /><br />http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/euro-vs-usd-may-get-bounce-from-1215000.htmlSanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14560526783105546906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-46660358231367085242010-05-31T10:16:20.001-04:002010-05-31T10:16:20.001-04:00Euro vs Usdollar moving in a channel with upside p...Euro vs Usdollar moving in a channel with upside possibilities<br /><br />http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/euro-vs-usdollar-moving-in-channel.html<br /><br />Thank youSanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14560526783105546906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-47759407399464680322010-05-30T21:20:07.047-04:002010-05-30T21:20:07.047-04:00with regards to "fat pitch" v. bearish s...with regards to "fat pitch" v. bearish signal from head and shoulders top, I would say the following and I believe I stated the following:<br /><br />1) I have no knowledge as to the significance of a head and shoulders top --in other words, what does it mean? As I don't know, It does not factor into my trading<br /><br />2) But I suspect it factors into the trading of others<br /><br />3) so the formation of a head and shoulders top doesn't mean anything to me<br /><br />4) if I can use the short sighted outlook of many market onlookers, there was a widely publicized head and shoulders top last summer that preceded the market going higher - oh my god, what is it going to be this time?<br /><br />5) I don't see anything incongruous regarding a fat pitch that is coming down the pike and a head and shoulders top that has yet to form<br /><br />******<br /><br />No doubt this sentiment stuff gets people in a tizzy--once again I cannot predict the future (which obviously hard for people to come to grips with) and I can only control when I want to put my chips on the table; think of it as a game of black jackGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-56970570428285615622010-05-30T19:45:27.134-04:002010-05-30T19:45:27.134-04:00we are not even close to the "fat pitch"...we are not even close to the "fat pitch". Using same method we had "fat pitch sell signal" since last year and yet the market gained hundreds of points. You can have this "fat pitch buy signal" for weeks and even months and market will still keep going down. So this is not a "fat pitch" in any stretch of imagination. Wait for real bearishness for proloned time before claiming "fat" oneAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-7715938581963582292010-05-30T18:16:23.055-04:002010-05-30T18:16:23.055-04:00I don't get it. You're saying this is a &...I don't get it. You're saying this is a "fat pitch" bull signal. Yet a few days ago the blog was about a bearish head/shoulders setting up. Which is it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-69629875388254465522010-05-30T17:59:06.797-04:002010-05-30T17:59:06.797-04:00I for one can accept this as a short-term bullish ...I for one can accept this as a short-term bullish condition... the $BDI has been crawling up strongly for months now.<br /><br />But I wouldn't call this a fat pitch for anything more than a short-term movement. All the doomsaying in the news over the past couple weeks did have some substance behind it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-80069708123058357962010-05-30T11:00:08.570-04:002010-05-30T11:00:08.570-04:00ORACLE CORP weekly and hourly view
http://niftych...ORACLE CORP weekly and hourly view<br /><br />http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/oracle-corp-hourly-channel-and-weekly.html<br /><br />Thank youSanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14560526783105546906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-58665809113758837872010-05-30T09:34:11.187-04:002010-05-30T09:34:11.187-04:00Anon #2:
that's right....the indicator failed...Anon #2:<br /><br />that's right....the indicator failed horribly and truth be told it does that about 15% of the signals....and you are right failures of the indicator will often lead to changes in trend ...that is very important to note...failures aren't the end of the world but they do contain very, very important information<br /><br />But see my comments above about not predicting the market but about where do I want to put my money to work ....which market environment is best<br /><br />I would agree with you that a more deeper oversold or extremes in bearish sentiment would be ideal and having the smart money bullish would be even better. Thus I still think ( but remember it is not what I think but what the market does that is important) we will get that right shoulder of the head and shoulders top....but honestly I don't know nor does anyone else....but I know where and when I want to place my betsGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-29471063609803978892010-05-30T09:21:59.114-04:002010-05-30T09:21:59.114-04:00Anon #1:
your question: hasn't the dumb mone...Anon #1: <br /><br />your question: hasn't the dumb money been right the past 12 months and the smart money wrong? A couple of weeks ago around the time of the market topping out, I wrote that the SP500 had gained 48% since the March 2009 lows, which at the time was 62 weeks ago. Obviously, this supports your idea that the dumb money has been right all along. HOWEVER, let's break the gains down; that is, when did they make that money?<br /><br />From the March lows to the top it was 62 weeks. For 48 out of 62 weeks the dumb money indicator showed extreme bullishness -- so once again the dumb money was right. HOWEVER, what did the market do? During those 48 weeks the SP500 gained a total of ZERO points. So the 48% gain was concentrated during the time (those 14 other weeks) the indicator was neutral or bearish.<br /><br />Let me state this loud and clear because this is the concept folks have a hard time getting their hands around: 1) I don't pretend to predict market direction; 2) but I do ask myself one question - what market environment do I want to put my hard earned money to work in?<br /><br />thanks for the interestGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-41108426369176691772010-05-30T06:29:40.762-04:002010-05-30T06:29:40.762-04:00I'm taking note; thanks Guy.I'm taking note; thanks Guy.D-mannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-19468275158505343842010-05-30T05:52:21.910-04:002010-05-30T05:52:21.910-04:00Re Figure 1 you will note that in the last qtr 200...Re Figure 1 you will note that in the last qtr 2007 and 1 st qtr 2008this "fat pitch" did not work out.<br />I know where you are going with this ,but like all these "indicator" based methods they fail in the face of trend change.There's no easy answer to this as we both know ,but right now I still want a deeper dip to be back inot equities and I want it to be a dip based on more outright fear. The retail unit investment funds have not confirmed a level of fear that I'm happy with.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-35811953354962582912010-05-30T03:02:22.040-04:002010-05-30T03:02:22.040-04:00Hi Guy, have always enjoyed your work. But if you ...Hi Guy, have always enjoyed your work. But if you look at it objectively, haven't the dumb money been right to be bullish the past 12 months? And the smart money been wrong for being neutral to bearish during the same time?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-70354563953484426132010-05-29T23:07:03.327-04:002010-05-29T23:07:03.327-04:00hetty: 1) not a perfect world; 2) another way to p...hetty: 1) not a perfect world; 2) another way to play it is to just reduce your market exposure, which you are doing by sitting on the sidelinesGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-51912655129128462872010-05-29T20:36:20.274-04:002010-05-29T20:36:20.274-04:00Ascending Triangle in 30 minutes chart of DOW JONE...Ascending Triangle in 30 minutes chart of DOW JONES<br /><br />http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/dow-jones-30-minutes-chart-ascending.html<br /><br />Thank youSanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14560526783105546906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-24252751233226141372010-05-29T20:09:35.061-04:002010-05-29T20:09:35.061-04:00Thanks Guy. I'm more interested in what the sm...Thanks Guy. I'm more interested in what the smart money is doing at the moment as I like to think I'm in this category. If it is neutral and sitting out a potentially positive move, so am I. Smart money gets bullish then my tune may change. "May" being the operative word because I'm not sure any of this behaviour is actually smart anymore when those eccentrics staying in cash or its near equivalent "may" be seen as geniuses by the time this is all over and done with (years from now).hettygreenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02942359318618747424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-44508595169848606632010-05-29T19:07:33.767-04:002010-05-29T19:07:33.767-04:00DOW JONES weekly triangle pattern
http://niftycha...DOW JONES weekly triangle pattern<br /><br />http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/dow-jones-ind-weekly-triangle.html<br /><br />Thank youSanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14560526783105546906noreply@blogger.com