tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post5467756290942845860..comments2023-11-05T03:39:11.575-05:00Comments on The Technical Take: Oil ETF: OversoldGuy M. Lernerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-55300496688184202672009-12-11T20:40:32.789-05:002009-12-11T20:40:32.789-05:00Moments:
I have been long USO for what seems like...Moments:<br /><br />I have been long USO for what seems like 3 months now....watch go up and down and I am actually underwater slightly now; not happy obviously but it is all still withing the confines of my strategy....on the weekly chart oil is close to rolling over; OIH has rolled over and I recently sold XLE for a nice profit<br /><br />I will check out the linkGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-11897017934800173862009-12-11T01:07:52.254-05:002009-12-11T01:07:52.254-05:00Almost exactly when you were positing that oil was...Almost exactly when you were positing that oil was ready to run, I was concluding that oil was ready to fall. Via DTO, I entered into a series of seven trades which I closed today. My premise is not as clever as yours. Mine was based solely on the fact that oil had come way off the spring lows and is expensive relative to its long run price. Demand is way down. Supply is a glut. Technically, I didn't think I'd get too much worse than 80 a barrel against me, and I figured it would make it back to the low 70's, which I think will be the new top. But, I'm not SO sure, as I did get out, for today. As I look at this sentiment chart, it runs contrary to your suggestion that sentiment was increasingly bearish. People were adding to long positions all the way up to at least this chart's early December end. I don't think all those folks got out in the last few days (though today was a very high volume futures day...short term selling climax?) http://www.market-harmonics.com/futures/futures_market_sentiment.htm#Crude<br /><br />I like your columns. Well thought out. If you trade eurodollars, you might like this equally technically adept analyst: eurodollars.wordpress.comUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07208514999515254781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-39827297655334024542009-12-09T04:22:00.794-05:002009-12-09T04:22:00.794-05:00Guy,
you could have the best of all setups.
but ...Guy,<br /><br />you could have the best of all setups.<br /><br />but if the momentum crowd moves over to gold (as it did over the last weeks) oil will (thankfully) simply behave as it was supposed to be - boring, slow moving, range bound.<br /><br />watch for volume in GLD to decline, while volume in USO picks up - that might be the time that the players are coming back.GreenABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-83599623019093315132009-12-09T00:50:00.035-05:002009-12-09T00:50:00.035-05:00Who wants to lose money in oil when you can lose m...Who wants to lose money in oil when you can lose money in gold!? That's my philosophy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-9657745853677124132009-12-08T22:14:39.672-05:002009-12-08T22:14:39.672-05:00Hey guy and Johnny, just curious, after today'...Hey guy and Johnny, just curious, after today's sell off, are rydex fund still bullish? Thanks in advance!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com