The Technical Take

On the cusp of breakout here...could UUP go to $27...

2010-03-20T03:08:44.768-04:00

On the cusp of breakout here...could UUP go to $27 again?

I've had an upside target on UUP of 24.80 - 25.04 ...

2010-03-19T14:25:45.936-04:00

I've had an upside target on UUP of 24.80 - 25.04 for some time....Those mini bull flags should help give it that final push. We shall see...

I hadn't looked at UUP for a while, but you are so...

2010-03-19T10:39:06.952-04:00

I hadn't looked at UUP for a while, but you are so right: if it moves higher here (and holds), the $US is definitely the one to buy. Thanks for the heads u(u)p.

Anon Depends upon your time frame and expectation...

2010-03-19T10:31:27.135-04:00

Anon

Depends upon your time frame and expectation for a gain; if you are playing for a 3% gain, I guess you can make that on any day in SLV -it is just a matter of finding the right day.

Negatives: Upward momentum at all levels Above 10...

2010-03-19T06:48:02.017-04:00

Negatives:
Upward momentum at all levels
Above 100 day and 45 day
Above pivot pts
Neg. H&S's have not been an indicator in this market

Positives:
Risk 1.4% Reward 3%
What's the $dollar got to do with it
100 day and 45 day are inverse
Greatest positive-silver is resolving an overbought situation

Silver still has an upward bias, but we see this as a neutral play - just waiting for resolution one way or the other

Ha! I hear ya. The bulls have been rampaging, bu...

2010-03-18T18:57:14.243-04:00

Ha! I hear ya. The bulls have been rampaging, but surely we're due for a bit of change here, no? Not necessarily more than near term, for now, but if the dollar is going to break out here the tone of the markets is likely to be quite different.

I agree about the Dollar, but I have hesitated put...

2010-03-18T18:15:44.213-04:00

I agree about the Dollar, but I have hesitated putting such a story out as everything I look at these days says non-risk over risk assets...

I will summon the courage to put my thoughts to paper/ key board

Here's a chart of the UUP. UUP chart

2010-03-18T15:24:01.879-04:00

Here's a chart of the UUP.

UUP chart

Dollar looks like it may be ready to perk up a bit...

2010-03-18T15:22:26.779-04:00

Dollar looks like it may be ready to perk up a bit too after this long consolidation. That would go well with your SLV call and with a stock market correction (it still does that, right? :-] )

UUP has broken over a trend line on the 5 min chart that goes back to the latest top at the beginning of March. It went up sharply this morning, retested that trend line, and has resumed the upward path.

Something to watch.

Bulls are ruined, especially those who buy now sho...

2010-03-18T08:59:00.246-04:00

Bulls are ruined, especially those who buy now should lose all their money in early June or earlier.
Crash is began in few days bulls and are is the KING AND MOTHER,BIG BEAR.

"So many see the fall coming in the markets. The b...

2010-03-18T05:13:59.765-04:00

"So many see the fall coming in the markets. The bears have had numerous opportunities to take this market down and have not stepped forward - not once."

Totally agree with that; sellers are non existent; they are scared like death.

So many see the fall coming in the markets. The b...

2010-03-17T19:04:23.372-04:00

So many see the fall coming in the markets. The bears have had numerous opportunities to take this market down and have not stepped forward - not once. Here we are with the bonds (Guy's TLT) getting close to a top and where are the bears? I look at TLT and see the bonds coupl-ing/re-coupling as is normal (Ylds up/Stocks up). Gold looks to have set the stage to recouple as well. You may find that the Ylds rise as the markets rise, but until then go with the flow and forget bottom picking too soon which is as bad as being late to get out at the top.

Hi Guy, I do appreciate your blog very much. Tod...

2010-03-17T17:46:16.385-04:00

Hi Guy,

I do appreciate your blog very much.

Today, I was thinking about the Goldman Sachs forecast for 2010: they predict an S&P around 1300.

While interest rate is low, estimated P/E around 15, low inflation, it's all good for risky assets and stocks.

I also sold today my 25x leveraged index of the AEX because it is a daytrade.

But VIX this low, put/call equities very low for 1 week!!, I would expect a top is not far away.

Can it be on of those momentums that all media and investors become bullish as well? I'm beginning to think that's the case at this moment. Although I know that most traders are bearish, what if they turn bullish too?

Thank you in advance for your comment
Patrick

test

2010-03-17T17:34:41.400-04:00

test

It's all good brother!!

2010-03-17T13:23:28.878-04:00

It's all good brother!!

No problem Guy, I respect that that's why I'm chec...

2010-03-17T12:49:31.415-04:00

No problem Guy, I respect that that's why I'm checking DAILY! your blog. I don't like adrenaline, it's not my personality; I'm an investor and I invest my hard earned income which is just an average salary (I'm a family father as well). Now those savings I have I want them protected, otherwise I go to Vegas and play there.

Vertical moves? Not interested in; lost 100 points on S&P up or down? Don't care. I try to go where risk is low (at least as far as I can understand it).

Anon: Thanks! Once the portfolio is up and runni...

2010-03-17T12:29:08.241-04:00

Anon:

Thanks! Once the portfolio is up and running you will be able to see allocations and real time changes.

This is what I do!

D man: Gets back to my point: can you get out in ...

2010-03-17T12:09:19.450-04:00

D man:

Gets back to my point: can you get out in time?

Everyone thinks they can? But last time I suggested this the SP500 lost about 7% in 2 weeks

I have put myself out there and given my rationale --that's the best I can do

Last one and I stop, promise :) This move reminds...

2010-03-17T12:04:06.410-04:00

Last one and I stop, promise :)

This move reminds me of exactly the same behaviour of the oil in 2008; despite the biggest recession in front of us in the last decades, the "pros" were suggesting to shut my mouth as I'm a poor retailer who doesn't understand peak oil. That move was vertical. Now I was bearish at 100$ on the way up, way too early. Same here, vertical move in spite of the fact that we're in the middle of a big valuations contraction cycle and the yields on S&P are very low to have a secular move; of course, I know nothing because I'm not a pro, which is true.

More it moves up, harder the fall.

And for that vertical, look at BIDU's chart; for t...

2010-03-17T11:59:16.453-04:00

And for that vertical, look at BIDU's chart; for those who bought at 620$, I wish them good luck!

"Alas, so many bloggers and analysts are calling f...

2010-03-17T11:58:02.929-04:00

"Alas, so many bloggers and analysts are calling for a pullback that we may need to go even more vertical before this ends. There have not been two consecutive days with a lower low since Feb 5th, which is more than surprising."

Yeah, what a wonderful journey we had in the LALA land...

It has been an extraordinary move - beyond extraor...

2010-03-17T11:30:57.913-04:00

It has been an extraordinary move - beyond extraordinary in many ways, as the market has never provided a clean sensible entry point in the way of a reasonable correction.

Alas, so many bloggers and analysts are calling for a pullback that we may need to go even more vertical before this ends. There have not been two consecutive days with a lower low since Feb 5th, which is more than surpring.

Of course, it will end and then there will be pent up selling pressure, as lots of people with trailing stops will liquidate. We will then end of filling most of the gaps that we left below.

The big ? what will be the catalyst for a move lower?

As always, ever interesting.

I guess it is pick your poison...we all have choic...

2010-03-17T11:27:30.432-04:00

I guess it is pick your poison...we all have choices to make

D-man: Thanks for the link and I knew it was you

The warning bells are ringing, and the fact that p...

2010-03-17T11:23:32.684-04:00

The warning bells are ringing, and the fact that people are still bidding up the market is thanks to the bullish press (as you so grpahically show, Guy). I have a simple system based on MACD and a few other auxiliary indicators, and for the major ETFs they are screaming DANGER, PULLBACK AHEAD!

"this time will be different", no, really it will....

2010-03-17T11:14:36.609-04:00

"this time will be different", no, really it will.