tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.comments2023-11-05T03:39:11.575-05:00The Technical TakeGuy M. Lernerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comBlogger1552125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-50690516012311784562011-11-01T03:31:49.520-04:002011-11-01T03:31:49.520-04:00How to get rid of allergies
Hi author, Good job ...<a href="http://www.nonallergy.com/" rel="nofollow">How to get rid of allergies</a><br /><br /><br />Hi author, Good job on this article! I really like how you presented your facts and how you made it interesting and easy to understand. Thank you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-20516878994913497632011-10-04T10:13:00.119-04:002011-10-04T10:13:00.119-04:00That is genuinely helpful. I would like to ask if ...That is genuinely helpful. I would like to ask if it would be Okay if I mentioned some of that on my own blog. Of course, I would credit you, and link back here also.<br /><br /><a href="http://thebodyprojectstudio.com/" rel="nofollow">Mendota Heights Personal Trainer</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-17767605485108786702011-09-05T07:03:50.421-04:002011-09-05T07:03:50.421-04:00We are in for a bloody September
http://capital3x....We are in for a bloody September<br />http://capital3x.com/?p=711Fast traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04071857691561252968noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-30607930625334152682011-05-20T22:26:07.592-04:002011-05-20T22:26:07.592-04:00ddddddThe Farmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06185768275112691648noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-47124028632414168442011-05-07T11:05:18.205-04:002011-05-07T11:05:18.205-04:00Hello Guy.
Check it out.
http://marketsbyfactfin...Hello Guy. <br />Check it out.<br /><br />http://marketsbyfactfinder.blogspot.com/2011/04/fibonacci-fact-and-clusters.html<br /><br />I was planning on going long SCO. Take a look at the low commitment of large traders in Oil futures. Unfortunately when it comes to trading Oil ETFs fading is the only right move. <br /><br />Best,<br />Fact FinderFact Finderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14793188812985755158noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-42944934719704661372011-05-07T11:00:03.555-04:002011-05-07T11:00:03.555-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Fact Finderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14793188812985755158noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-7112979979623434692011-05-03T10:56:31.364-04:002011-05-03T10:56:31.364-04:00Jim: thanks for the data linkJim: thanks for the data linkGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-14135529167186908942011-05-03T09:36:35.012-04:002011-05-03T09:36:35.012-04:00Ah -- here's where I got that historical data....Ah -- here's where I got that historical data. They have the GSCI back to 1970, and the CCI and CRB indexes back to Sep. 1956.<br /><br />Prices seem fairly reasonable, compared to most institutional data providers.<br /><br />http://www.crbtrader.com/marketdata/commodity_indexes.aspJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15746041341129724900noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-14344447843570689302011-05-02T22:31:34.437-04:002011-05-02T22:31:34.437-04:00Jim: Great question and very valid
1) the old mod...Jim: Great question and very valid<br /><br />1) the old model used crude, gold, and yields and the new model uses CRB, gold, and yields<br /><br />2) the reason to switch was to capture more general commodity inflation plus I could look at data going back to 1973 with CRB and with crude it was only 1984<br /><br />3) the results did not matter which data I used<br /><br />4) plus it is my understanding that CRB was 40% crude so it seem to make sense to use the broader index<br /><br />5) more specifically to your question -- crude oil has been up strongly while agriculture commodities appear to be softening therefore CRB is in neutral trend while crude is in a strong trend<br /><br />6) utilizing the CRB, yield, gold model the signals over the past couple of months have been:<br /><br />Sell signal from 2/18 to 3/11<br /><br />Buy Signal SP500 on 3/18 at the close to the present<br /><br />7) utilizing the crude, yield, gold model (which is old configuration) you get:<br /><br />Sell signal from 3/4 to 4/29; during this time the SP500 gained 3%<br /><br />Buy Signal from 4/29 to present because yields are going down<br /><br />Using the new configuration has been helpful in this instance; however, profits have yet to be booked on this trade<br /><br />Both models are in alignment at present as yield pressures are diminishingGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-50103268450428417362011-05-02T18:50:17.737-04:002011-05-02T18:50:17.737-04:00May I ask what the previous version of the model -...May I ask what the previous version of the model -- the one which used crude oil rather than the CRB index as a component -- is showing?<br /><br />I know you changed it for a reason. But I felt that the earlier version was more elegant. Since gold is a component of the CRB, there's a small element of double-counting in the current version. <br /><br />And rising gasoline prices are a major psychological factor at present ... much more so than the CRB, which doesn't ring a bell for most of the public.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15746041341129724900noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-31203157480975309282011-04-27T15:45:36.682-04:002011-04-27T15:45:36.682-04:00I haven't succumbed to the 'ravages' o...I haven't succumbed to the 'ravages' of inflation yet being a shrewd and minimalist buyer of essentials and sans any debt so I'm going with cash in the Sealy, wine and (home) canned goods in the cellar and a well stocked library of second hand books. These are my 'investments.'hettygreenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02942359318618747424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-73715858002833603172011-04-27T14:51:29.502-04:002011-04-27T14:51:29.502-04:00they will be my next post!
I saw that and thought...they will be my next post!<br /><br />I saw that and thought the same thing<br /><br />WE are doomed!Guy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-63281497389693412362011-04-27T13:34:39.011-04:002011-04-27T13:34:39.011-04:00Paul O'Neill joins in, and says that people wh...Paul O'Neill joins in, and says that people who won't raise the debt ceiling are "terrorists". Yeesh.bmbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03848092038657309397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-54977792857270408352011-04-23T16:48:23.631-04:002011-04-23T16:48:23.631-04:00Reading "The Farms" comments really make...Reading "The Farms" comments really makes me sad about the state of America. We're all turning into greedy, self centered savages, looking to blame someone else for our problems as a nation. Be part of the solution The Farm, not just another scared, whiny racist, looking to blame anyone but your own generation for the problems the country faces. Don't spew hate be a real American.redfredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13274573527111862861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-29298500151512521502011-04-20T17:14:10.946-04:002011-04-20T17:14:10.946-04:00I believed in wealth distribution back in the 60&#...I believed in wealth distribution back in the 60's and 70's (and a progressive tax code - the backbone of our republic) when taxes were an investment of sorts that went to those willing to use the aid to better themselves via hard work and innovation. <br /><br />"Back then" the group receiving the aid was ethnocentric and homogeneous. They accepted the money reluctantly and only as a stop gap measure to get back on their feet. <br /><br />Today, America's immigrants and lower classes are part of a pot of tribalism with no heat at the burner who don't want to become part of this nation. They are not amalgamating, co-joining, but rather remaining as separate entities and cultures. There is no "America" to them, only classes of people they want to "get back at" and get "what they are owed." I believe it's in the DNA of the third world, in the immigrants who flood over our borders everyday from Africa and South America with attitudes of entitlement and deceit. <br /><br />I say keep what we own, to hell with redistribution to people who don't look like me nor share my values or the values of my people. <br /><br />It's not about taxes or redistribution but theft, pure and simple. Well that and white guilt. Sadly America will probably go by way of "Balkanization" soon, broken along racial and "tribal" lines. <br /><br />Taxes are simply a way to fleece us before that inevitability happens. <br /><br />If it's all the same to you, I'll keep what I have, thank you very much...The Farmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06185768275112691648noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-58224360265663388462011-04-20T16:52:52.709-04:002011-04-20T16:52:52.709-04:00You make some good points, but what planet do you ...You make some good points, but what planet do you live on? You should try pricing health care. Good health care for a family of four, meaning only about a $20 copay per doctor visit, is about $2000 per month in NY. Health care involving a high-deductible plan, where you pay everything until you get to about $3000, is still at least $1000 per month.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02728091717981540488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-42552429429932338642011-04-20T11:01:53.559-04:002011-04-20T11:01:53.559-04:00hetty
thank you
not everyone can do all those th...hetty<br /><br />thank you<br /><br />not everyone can do all those things; that is fair<br /><br />But we need prioritize as to what is important<br /><br />Do we want to fight wars in the Middle East to preserve our dependence on oil or do we want to lessen that dependence? ETCGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-77141647645364729022011-04-20T10:18:30.424-04:002011-04-20T10:18:30.424-04:00Nice column this morning Guy. Thanks.
I have anot...Nice column this morning Guy. Thanks.<br /><br />I have another suggestion (or three). Walk or ride a bike to work (or take public transit). Get rid of a car (or two) if you have more than one. Think of what you will save on interest, fuel, repair and upkeep expenses. Think of the healthier heart and set of lungs you will develop and cleaner air for you and your neighbor to breathe. Think of relieving the health care system of a potential future burden (you). Finally wean yourself off your credit cards. Keep one for emergencies and cut the rest up. Just say no to indentured servitude. There are many more ways to be a responsible citizen - hopefully it won't take systemic financial and moral bankruptcy for society to finally awaken to this.hettygreenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02942359318618747424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-91560689350786048722011-04-18T13:16:27.594-04:002011-04-18T13:16:27.594-04:00Toptick
I agree about time frame -- it is often o...Toptick<br /><br />I agree about time frame -- it is often overlooked.<br /><br />Most of my stuff is weeks to months...I always try to give the time and expected draw down one must endure while waiting for a profitGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-5999148989876910412011-04-18T11:42:45.764-04:002011-04-18T11:42:45.764-04:00It's easy to be influenced away from your own ...It's easy to be influenced away from your own analysis. But one way to stay grounded is to ask "What is the timeframe for my analysis vs. the timeframe of the outside influences?" Buffet is famous for very long-term 'trades' -- he thinks in years; Gross, because of the size he trades (could be a pun!), must think at least intermediate term -- months or more. Your analysis strikes me as trading in weeks. <br /><br />You can be on the opposite side of the trade from these guys, yet you can all end up right when measured in your own timeframes.Toptickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379288226241889428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-52269257386237632512011-04-17T20:33:01.442-04:002011-04-17T20:33:01.442-04:00Tris:
Good for you!
I am just being honest in ...Tris: <br /><br />Good for you!<br /><br />I am just being honest in my own assessment of what I do<br /><br />I am glad you found the 89.17 level useful; I like to think that I have better tools than most and how I derive support and resistance levels is just one methodology that I can point to that no one does<br /><br />Thanks for passing along the link to the articleGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-76497452013575176072011-04-17T20:10:33.372-04:002011-04-17T20:10:33.372-04:00I was long TLT when it dropped. I read your post a...I was long TLT when it dropped. I read your post about 89.17 being a good low risk entry point and I decided to hold on for a few reasons: I told myself 'this time is not different'; I was convinced that 'weak hands' get stopped out by moves like this; and, I was not deterred by Gross due to <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/257869-time-to-buy-u-s-treasury-bonds-again" rel="nofollow">this article</a> that analyzed his historical calls on the long bond.<br /><br />Why didn't I increase my position? My broker said that TLT was hard to borrow, probably due to excessive shorting, so I didn't have the guts. :-)Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00038229851955934604noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-33700952217778743972011-04-12T21:38:07.437-04:002011-04-12T21:38:07.437-04:00Guy,
As usual well said. Pure capitalism does no...Guy, <br /><br />As usual well said. Pure capitalism does not exit and probably can't in a complex a system as ours. <br /><br />What are your thoughts on an asset based system versus a debt/usury one that is in the end unsustainable? (ala Money as Debt video)<br /><br />Thanks, JohnThe Farmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06185768275112691648noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-63800175158390628182011-04-12T16:50:41.455-04:002011-04-12T16:50:41.455-04:00Guy,
No need to apologize for 'second guessin...Guy,<br /><br />No need to apologize for 'second guessing the [Iraq] war effort.' That war was a flat-out fraud, as those of us who protested in the streets in February 2003 were saying BEFORE IT STARTED.<br /><br />For practical purposes, since 1971 (when Nixon cut the dollar's last link to gold) 'life as we know it' has come to mean keeping both the fiscal and monetary accelerators floored most of the time, even as debt builds alarmingly. <br /><br />With a negative net worth of nearly $200 trillion (according to Laurence Kotlikoff), the U.S. is now 'liquid but insolvent.' <br /><br />Needless to say, when an entity is insolvent, creditors eventually are going to cut off the flow of liquidity. Only the timing, not the destination, is in doubt.<br /><br />Obviously, in terms of regaining solvency (probably impossible) or at least staving off the grim day when illiquidity sets in, it would help to end grandiose, costly campaigns for 'regime change' in faraway lands. The U.S. has more than a full plate of issues at home, and could probably use a regime change itself, judging from how poorly it's being managed.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15746041341129724900noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3310402797768514899.post-25871754493782046102011-04-10T22:04:49.131-04:002011-04-10T22:04:49.131-04:00Get:
I took the "smart money" indicator...Get:<br /><br />I took the "smart money" indicator out about 6 months ago because it really wasn't smart in any time period<br /><br />See this link: http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010/11/once-again-smart-money-isnt-so-smart.html<br /><br />And this link: http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010/11/smart-money-maybe-not-so-smart.htmlGuy M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.com