Figure 1. "Dumb Money"/ weekly
The "Smart Money" indicator is shown in figure 2. The "smart money indicator is a composite of the following data: 1) public to specialist short ratio; 2) specialist short to total short ratio; 3) SP100 option traders. The "Smart Money" indicator is bullish/neutral as the smart money has shown little inclination to buy into this market.
Figure 2. "Smart Money"/weekly
Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the S&P500 with the InsiderScore "entire market” value in the lower panel. From the InsiderScore weekly report: as with the prior weeks, transactional volume has slowed and insiders remained without conviction.
Figure 3. InsiderScore "Entire Market" Value/ weekly
Figure 4 is a weekly chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds. When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall.
Currently, the value of the indicator is 42.88%. Values less than 50% are associated with market bottoms. This is the lowest value since July, 2009. However, as discussed in a recent Rydex research report, the persistence of selling or lack of buying (as seen in this indicator) is most likely a sign of price weakness over the coming week.
Figure 4. Rydex Total Bull v. Total Bear/ weekly
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