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The Dollar Index is making a stand.
Showing posts with label Dollar Index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dollar Index. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
The Dollar Falls Out of Bed
In my last look at the Dollar Index, I stated: "The trend is still down, and the technicals would suggest that we will be visiting the all time lows last seen in 2008 at some point in the near future. At that point, I surmise things will start to get interesting."
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
The Dollar Index: The Down Trend is Intact
In my last look at the Dollar Index, I pointed out that the Dollar doesn't seem relevant anymore, and as long as the down trend was under control, then all seem to be ok. The trend is still down, and the technicals would suggest that we will be visiting the all time lows last seen in 2008 at some point in the near future. At that point, I surmise things will start to get interesting.
Monday, March 21, 2011
Dollar Index: Under Control and Moving Along as Expected
The Dollar doesn't seem relevant anymore. Recent geopolitical events combined with extremes in bearishness and "oversoldness" could hardly get a rise out of the greenback. Last week would have been the ideal set up to reverse its down trend, but lo and behold, nothing. The trend remains down.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
The Dollar Index: Getting Very Specific on the Technicals
In the article, "The Dollar Index: High Risk of Unraveling", I presented a purely price based model that suggested that there is about a 33% chance of a significant downside move in the Dollar Index over the next 26 weeks. However, a reader correctly noted that investor sentiment towards the Dollar Index is very bearish, and the reader wanted to know if this figures into the analysis and why wouldn't I be bullish if everyone else is bearish. Here are my thoughts.
Monday, March 7, 2011
The Dollar Index: High Risk of Unraveling
I am sure that you are aware that the Dollar Index can't get a bid. This isn't news but a fact. The Dollar Index is in a down trend, and the question to ponder is: how low can it go? Looking at the price patterns, I believe the Dollar is at significant risk of unraveling.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
The Dollar Index: How Low Can You Go?
When looking at the Dollar Index, I am reminded of the song the "Cha Cha Slide"when the performer says, "How low can you go?" There is no question investors believe that the Dollar is going down and that equities are only going up all courtesy of Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and his QE 2 policy. Yesterday's rally in equities and concurrent drop in the Dollar served to remind me of the fact that currency devaluation and increasing liquidity remain the drivers for equities. It has been that way since 2007, and why should it stop now? For the record, the Dollar Index was down a hefty 0.86% yesterday while stocks enjoyed a strong trend day.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Still About the Dollar
While the S&P500 goes on to test the recent highs, let's make no mistake about it that the last 2 days of positive price action have been predicated on a falling Dollar. Of course, this set of circumstances is no different than the dynamic that has occurred since the March, 2009 lows: that the Dollar and S&P500 have been negatively correlated. A falling Dollar is good for equities and a rising Dollar is a headwind. Ok, nothing new here.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Hold On A Second!
It was only a week ago that I was looking at the Dollar and saying: "The inability of the Dollar to bounce when are investors are extremely bearish suggests that oversold has become more oversold. This is the definition of a strong down trend." This week, prices have reversed rather dramatically, and in all likelihood, the Dollar will end the week with the down trend reversed and the intermediate term trend looking up.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
The Technical Take: UUP
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (symbol: UUP). The indicator in the lower panel measures investor sentiment towards the US Dollar, and this data comes from MarketVane.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Dollar At Support, Bounce Likely
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull ETF (symbol: UUP).
SPY v. UDN
Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P Depository Receipts ETF (symbol: SPY) in the upper panel versus the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bear ETF (symbol: UDN) in the lower panel.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Dollar Devaluation: Pushing On A String?
Through the ups and downs of the stock market over the last 3 months, there has been one constant: the Dollar Index has gone down. This is surprising as the Dollar has barely managed a bounce following a very strong up move from November, 2009 to June, 2010. Even its safe haven status in times of market turbulence is now in question as traders have moved on to the Swiss Franc or Japanese Yen.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Thursday, April 15, 2010
What I Am Watching (Part 2): EURUSD
The EURUSD cross rate has been bouncing around its weekly key pivot point for several weeks now. See figure 1, a weekly chart of the EURUSD.
Friday, March 19, 2010
The Dollar Index: The Move Isn't Done
I will keep this brief as my rational for the new found strength in the Dollar Index is more observational than "scientific". Some things you just can't back test or measure in a methodical fashion or I just haven't figured out how to do it.
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