Thursday, November 11, 2010

Hold On A Second!

It was only a week ago that I was looking at the Dollar and saying: "The inability of the Dollar to bounce when are investors are extremely bearish suggests that oversold has become more oversold.  This is the definition of a strong down trend."  This week, prices have reversed rather dramatically, and in all likelihood, the Dollar will end the week with the down trend reversed and the intermediate term trend looking up.

See figure 1 a weekly chart of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (symbol: UUP).  Key pivot points (areas of buying and selling or support and resistance, respectively) are noted on the chart.  Last week prices closed below support levels and we were bearish, and support became resistance.  This week it is likely that UUP will close above resistance (old support), and this is bullish.  A reasonable intermediate term price target is 23.84, which is the down sloping 40 week moving average.

Figure 1. UUP/ weekly

Figure 2 is a daily chart of UUP.  The close above the pivot at 22.28 is an early sign of a trend change.  By this daily chart, a reasonable price target is 23.40.  

Figure 2. UUP/ daily

In the final analysis, the death of the Dollar is premature.  However, a weekly close back below support at  22.36 is bearish.  Stay tuned and remain flexible. 


babaro said...

UUP is trying to do something here. It still has to overcome the downtrend line that stays now around 22.8. It may bump into this downtrend line then move down again. What is bullish about UUP is momentum, daily DMI turned slightly green on daily chart. In the last two years UUP found support around SMA70 (23.25) so I would say a climb above this level would push the dollar in the bullish territory for a while.

Guy M. Lerner said...

One thing about my work is that I tend to catch the changes early