Monday, November 1, 2010

Investor Sentiment: November 1, 2010

Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the S&P500, which shows the composite sentiment indicator in the middle panel.   The indicator is constructed from the "Dumb Money" and "Smart Money" indicators, Rydex asset data, and InsiderScore total market value of insider buying and selling.  These are the set of indicators that I highlight in our weekly round up on sentiment. 11 unique data points are utilized in this indicator. 

Figure 1. Composite Sentiment Indicator

The indicator is currently neutral.  With regards to the specific components, the "dumb money" indicator is extremely bullish (i.e., bear signal) and so is the "smart money" indicator.  As discussed last week, this is an odd set up circumstances with little explanation.  Insiders are neutral with a bias towards selling, and there also is a lack of buying.  The Rydex data suggests that we are late in the rally phase.   

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