Monday, November 1, 2010

Ooops! A Mis- Fire (Correction!)

Our indicator that is constructed from the trends in crude oil, gold, and yields on the 10 year Treasury did NOT make it into the extreme zone last week.  This was due to some end of the week weakness in crude oil and Treasury yields.  Therefore, the strategy that combines the 40 week moving average with this filter did NOT yield a sell signal.  The indicator is shown below.

Figure 1. S&P500/ weekly

Of note, I don't think these pressures are going to go away so easily.  As we start a new week, crude oil is already up  nearly 3%.

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