I Hope You Were Not One of Those Buying

Monday's market action saw some of the strongest buying amongst the Rydex market timers in over 10 years.  Oops!

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Comments from 4.5.11 Rydex Report

Figure 1 shows the comments from the April 5, 2011 Rydex Report for subscribers to our Premium Content.

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Tops Take Time To Form

During the week of February 10th, 2011, I was on vacation.  Normally, vacation means vacation although I will monitor the markets.  I try not to do any writing on the blog, and the subscribers to the Premium Content service know this.  However, during that week the Rydex market timers became the most bullish they had ever been - not only since this rally started but since the data began in 2000.  Interrupting my vacation, I sent a "special report" to the subscribers of our Premium Content service, and I present those comments below.

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More Extremes In The Rydex Asset Data

I have highlighted the extremes in market sentiment over the past couple of weeks, yet the market keeps on ticking higher -although the price action has been very erratic and the breadth of the advance has been very narrow.  I still contend that there will be better risk adjusted opportunities for buying equities in the future or at the very least, there are better places to put your money.  So presenting the Rydex data is somewhat redundant, but these are an interesting group of charts.

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This Time Is Different

"This time is different".  It really, really is.  Trust me.  It's true.  Those famous 4 words of investing that should have you running the other way and that should be relegated to the trash bin of investing along with such phrases as "stocks climb a wall of worry" and the "stock market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" are as true today as any time in the past 10 years.

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Rydex Market Timers: Are You the Smart Money or Dumb Money?

This is the Rydex Report from November 9, 2010, which was sent to subscribers of our Premium Content service on Monday night.  The data has not changed all week.

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Rydex Report for 8.30.10

This report was sent to subscribers of the Premium Content service on Sunday night.  While the makings of a short term bottom are present, the sustainability of any upside move in equities remains the big question.  A tradeable rally for those who are nimble?  Yes.  A big liftoff?  Not likely.

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Utility Sector: Divergence Between Smart and Dumb Money

The Utility Sector is thought to be a safe haven in the time of market duress. There is no question that the market is under pressure, but I would be very careful about betting on the assumption (dogma?) that safety will be found in the Utility Sector. Currently, it should be noted that utility company insiders are net sellers of their shares to an extreme degree. This is the "smart money". On the other hand, utilizing the Rydex asset data, these market timers (who we might call the "dumb money" because of their propensity to get it wrong) are betting to an extreme degree on higher prices in the Utility Sector. I ask: in such a weak market, why would I bet against the "smart money" and on the "dumb money"?

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Research Notes on Rydex Asset Data

Every week I present the following chart in our sentiment round up. See figure 1. It is the Rydex total bull to bear ratio. The indicator in the lower panel of figure 1 measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds. When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall.

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Rydex Market Timers: Still Useful

I have attached a recent report from our Premium Content service that utilizes the Rydex asset data.

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Rydex Market Timers: What Are They Up To?

This report was from Monday night, and it was sent to those subscribers who pay for the Premium Content.

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Rydex Market Timers: How Extreme?

This analysis will give you greater insight into one of the Rydex indicators that is published in the weekly report on investor sentiment. Specifically, we are going to look at the Rydex Total Bull v. Total Bear indicator.

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Rydex Market Timers: What Are They Up To?

Like NPR's popular Car Talk radio show with Tom and Ray Magliozzi - better known as Click and Clack - we here at TheTechnicalTake also have a "Shameless Commerce" Division. After all we have some unique content that we would like to capitalize on, and I have to make a living too!

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Special Report For Our Premium Content Subscribers

The attached link is a special report that was written Sunday night for the subscribers to our Premium Content.

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Rydex Market Timers: A One Day Bet

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures the ratio of the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds relative to those funds that are bearish and leveraged.

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Rydex Market Timers: Making Bearish Bets

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures the ratio of the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds relative to those funds that are bearish and leveraged.

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Rydex Market Timers: Take A Guess Before You Read!

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures the ratio of the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds relative to those funds that are bearish and leveraged.

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Rydex Market Timers: Still Bearish

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures the ratio of the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds relative to those funds that are bearish and leveraged.

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Rydex Market Timers: Bearish And More!

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures the ratio of the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds relative to those funds that are bearish and leveraged.

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Rydex Market Timers: Remain Bearish Heading Into Holiday Weekend

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures the ratio of the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds relative to those funds that are bearish and leveraged.

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