Why bet against the market when it only goes up? After almost 2 years of a seemingly relentless upwards move with only one real buying opportunity, market participants have clearly become accustomed to the notion that the market never goes down. This is a sign of true complacency. I am not calling for a market top or the start of a bear market -- there are too many "Johnny come lately's" willing to buy at the sign of any weakness --but let's be clear: investors are becoming comfortable with the market. The dips are becoming shallower and I suspect the peaks (or time at new highs) won't last as long as well. While it is always important to buy low and sell high, I believe this will really be important going forward as the margin for error increases as sentiment becomes exceedingly bullish. This requires patience and discipline, which are characteristics few investors and traders demonstrate. I can easily be constructive on exposure to the equity market, but in the absence of a sell off, it is hard to see adding exposure.
Insider trading volumes remained thin as the week was shortened by the Good Friday holiday and normal seasonal factors kept insiders on the sidelines. Earnings season is kicking into gear this week and it will kick into high gear next week. The result will be a dramatic jump in the number of insider transactions as executives, directors and institutional owners react to earnings announcement.