Thursday, February 4, 2010

Brazilian Bovespa: Dead Money

Figure 1 is a monthly chart of the Brazilian Bovespa Index.

Figure 1. Brazilian Bovespa/ monthly

The indicator in the lower panel measures the number of negative divergence bars occurring between price and an oscillator that measures that price action. Negative divergence bars are the price bars with pink markers on them. As we have shown many times before (see this link and this link) across multiple markets, a clustering of negative divergence bars implies slowing price momentum. Often, a cluster of negative divergence bars is a technical finding seen at market tops, but it doesn't have to be part of every market top. In any case, we now have a clustering of negative divergence bars on this monthly chart of this very important index.

When looking at multiple assets throughout history, I would generally move to the side lines when such price formations occur on the monthly charts as this is a very reliable sign of a market top. In the case of the Bovespa, it really was not especially during the bull market from 2003 to 2008. Nonetheless, a cluster of negative divergence bars during this time period was always followed by side ways movement in price such that the 10 week moving average was touched 2-3 months later. The 10 month moving average is about 10% away, and it is my expectation for the Brazilian Bovespa to trade to these levels over the next 2 months.

Another negative technical sign would be the double top at the old highs. We won't know for sure for many months, but the high odds play is that when you see a cluster of negative divergences, prices tend to go side ways. So I expect this is what we will get; in other words, it will be hard for the index to break out without going lower first.

Lastly, weakness in the Bovespa continues to be very consistent with prior posts on emerging market ETF's. See this post from January 26, 2010 on EEM, and this post from January 27, 2010 on FXI.

7 comments:

d-man said...

just a small note on today's move on USD/JPY pair; quite big move, it might invalidate the bullish scenario for USD if it closes here tomorrow.

Guy M. Lerner said...

agreed....I am watching

plus, I am a bit annoyed by this position; I have the Dollar part of it correct but the Yen really has not cooperated

anyways, a low risk entry it was but the premise remains worth watching if this turns into a losing trade; take small lost and move on

Guy M. Lerner said...

I know what has me annoyed about this is that I chose to short the Yen feeling that I was too late to short the Euro!!!!

As I said, I have had the $ part correct for awhile now it was just a matter of finding the right vehicle

D-man said...

"I know what has me annoyed about this is that I chose to short the Yen feeling that I was too late to short the Euro"

No Guy, the setup you shown on the yen was correct; big next thing in the right zone.

Now of course, that is not the grail as you mentioned many times; one should cut and move on indeed. I'm long USD/YEN based on your analysis; I'll cut Monday if the weekly closes below that support level.

I had a question when you published that analysis, but never got an answer; how higher rated in Japan are bad for the currency? I know they are bad for bonds, but for the currency??? It should be the opposite I guess...

Guy M. Lerner said...

D-man:

I know, I know, I know....

Just follow the signals....very low risk entry at present but still might turn our way; the premise remains sound!!! And is consistent with everything else I do.

With regards to your question, I don't have an answer and I would not be the person to venture even a guess, BUT from my reading, either higher rates, lower yen or a combination is in Japan's future.

D-man said...

" A weekly close below 89.364 on the USDJPY would suggest that this cross rate is going lower."

I think we're still good Guy, 89.385 for the pair; maybe not all is lost...

Guy M. Lerner said...

low risk entry for someone!