Friday, February 26, 2010


Just when I get all poofy about some market "call", here comes Mr. Market to deflate my bubble.

Two days ago, I wrote "Did You Sell GLD, GDX, SLV?", and in my poofiness, I had the top in metals correct, and based upon the recent price action, I suggested that i-Shares Silver Trust (symbol: SLV) was vulnerable. In particular, I felt that SLV was essentially at resistance and in the face of a weak market and declining sponsorship (i.e., decreasing OBV), it appeared to me that SLV would test support (at 14.78) before breaking above resistance at 15.87.

If the price action over the last two days is any guide, I am wrong! Deflaticus! Maximus!

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the i-Shares Silver Trust (symbol: SLV) showing prices moving above resistance (albeit on sub par volume today).

Figure 1. SLV/ daily

Of note, and by my account the weekly chart (in figure 2) has yet to turn up. In fact, it appears that SLV is just hanging on to rising trend line support at the 40 week moving average. In a sense, this represents a low risk entry point from a technical analysis perspective utilizing the new level of support (at 15.87) as either a place to buy and sell. In other words, buy near 15.87, and sell if prices go back below this level. If SLV fails at this level of support (15.87), then it is look out below.

Figure 2. SLV/ weekly

No comments: