S&P500 v. LEI

Figure 1 is a monthly chart of the S&P500 versus the leading economic indicator (middle panel, orange line) published from the Economic Cycle Research Institute ( http://www.businesscycle.com/). Recessions are indicated by the vertical gray bars and the graphic in the lower panel are the official expansions and contractions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The LEI continues to head lower and shows no signs (at this point) of reversing. This divergence is noteworthy.

Figure 1. S&P500 v. LEI/ monthly