That's the story behind the story. However, the technical picture appears to suggest a different story. See figure 1, a monthly chart of a continuous gold futures contract.
Figure 1. Gold/ monthly
With a monthly close below the pivot point (labeled #1), gold entered a bear market. This was an "m -type" top. Four months later, gold is now peaking above a down sloping trend line and is trading just below its simple 10 month moving average. A monthly close over the trend line and the 10 month moving average will reverse the bearish trend. A monthly close above the pivot point (labeled #1) is very bullish. As we are not at the end of the month, the bullish signal has not happened yet.
What has happened is best seen on a weekly chart of gold. See figure 2.
Figure 2. Gold/ weekly
The March, 2008 highs are labeled with a #1 and the October, 2008 lows are labeled with a #2. The current upswing is an exact 50% retracement of the down draft that occurred from points #1 to #2 or the high to lows. Furthermore, the pattern of lower lows and lower highs is unlikely to be broken with this upswing.
So let's summarize the following for gold: 1) a new bull market has yet to be confirmed; 2) the current bounce is an exact 50% retracement into a down sloping 10 month moving average or 40 week moving average; 3) the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is intact.
While the price action has been strong and the fundamental story is plausible, the technicals suggest a pull back. For now and until confirmation of a monthly close over the trend line in figure 1 (or the simple 10 month moving average), this does not appear to be anything more than a strong bounce into resistance.
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