Thursday, October 8, 2009

Gold v. Currencies v. Gold Sentiment

Figure 1 is a weekly chart of a continuous gold contract. The indicator in the middle panel measures gold's 52 week performance relative to a basket of 8 currencies.Those currencies are: 1) Australian Dollar; 2) Canadian Dollar; 3) Swiss Franc; 4) Eurodollar; 5) British Pound; 6) Singaporean Dollar; 7) Japanese Yen; 8) US Dollar. Relative to these currencies, gold has been outperforming, and this nothing new.

Figure 1. Gold v. Currencies v. Sentiment

The data in the lower panel comes from the Market Vane Corporation, which publishes the Bullish Consensus.The value is approaching but not at prior extremes. The current value is at 88%. Recent tops occurred with the value above 90%.

Relative to past and recent runs in gold, it appears that the current "breakout" is not extreme when considered against other currencies. Nor is it extreme on a sentiment basis.

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