Rydex Market Timers: All In (Again!)

The Rydex market timers are all in again.

The last time I used those words was on September 25, which marked a short term high in the S&P500. About a week later, a reasonable short term (trading) opportunity developed.

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund in the lower panel. When the money market fund is flush with cash, one can assume that the Rydex timers (like market participants in general) are fearful of market losses. From a contrarian perspective, these are good buying opportunities. When the amount of assets are low (like now), these market timers are all in; one should be on the lookout for market tops. There is little buying power left. As of Friday's close, the amount of assets in the Money Market Fund was at its lowest value since the bull run began in March, 2009.

Figure 1. S&P500 v. Rydex Money Market/ daily

The amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund have been moving with in a range since early June, 2009. This range can be appreciated in figure 1. The three prior short term tops in this rally are noted by the yellow vertical lines. Coincidentally (sic), these short term tops had the Rydex market timers betting the wrong way.

Every now and then this sentiment thing works - until it doesn't. But remember, I cannot predict the next card out of the deck; I can only determine the best times to play.