Monday, November 23, 2009

Thanksgiving Week Trading

In this week's comments on investor sentiment, I alluded to the positive seasonality seen in the stock markets during the week of Thanksgiving. Here is some compelling data.

This is a very nice table from Trader's Narrative showing how the S&P500 has performed over the last 20 years during the Thanksgiving holiday week. My thanks to Babak for allowing me to share this with my readers.

Table 1. S&P500 Performance/ Thanksgiving Week

While the table covers only 20 years, the article presents some numbers going back to 1950. In essence, the data supports the notion of an upside bias to the week, and in particular, the trading days around the actual Thanksgiving holiday are very positive. Sellers are not out in force, and buyers will push a low volume market higher.

Unfortunately, the good holiday vibe is short lived as the week after Thanksgiving week tends to be a little less bullish.


anaksulong said...

hopefully everyday is happy trading day

stock news said...

Key benchmark indices are expected to open flat to positive on mixed global cues. The Nifty futures traded as SGX CNX Nifty Index Futures in Singapore were up 16 points to 5089. Volatility may continue as traders shuffle their positions ahead of Thursday's expiry of November series derivatives contracts. However, weakness in the Chinese markets, and uninspiring economic data from the U.S may weigh on sentiment.

According to data released by the NSE, in the last session, FIIs were sellers of index futures to the tune of Rs 250.25 crore and bought index options worth Rs 103.74 crore. They were net buyers of stock futures to the tune of Rs 78.10 crore while sold stock options worth Rs 116.45 crore

More details

Dacian said...

As I said, it's time to go back into the gold market as a move above the divergence bar activates the "this time is different" scenarios, with all the shorts covering as they cannot catch the top; gold market will never ever correct I guess and the price will deviate towards the left of its vertical axis, a thing never seen in the history of financial markets :). Such a wonderful life!

Have a look by yourself! (here is vs. the Nasdaq)

Happy thanksgiving!