Monday, January 4, 2010

Currency And Country ETF: Canada

Figure 1 is a weekly chart comparing the Currency Shares Canadian Dollar (symbol: FXC) to the i-Shares MSCI Canada Index Fund (symbol: EWC). As you can see, these two instruments are highly correlated across multiple time frames.

Figure 1. FXC v. EWC/ weekly

FXC is one of the few currencies that has held up against the Dollar over the past 4 weeks, and by my estimation, price has consolidated as opposed to breakdown like the Australian Dollar or the Japanese Yen. This might make FXC and by proxy, EWC, a relative leader if the Dollar should weaken. Furthermore, one would expect that the Canadian economy and EWC will benefit from strength in commodities.

Figure 2 is a monthly chart of EWC. A breakout from the current range (seen better on the weekly chart, which is not shown) would likely see prices get to $30. This represents resistance from the breakdown of the early 2008 top. This is a classic "M" type top. There is trend line resistance plus the resistance from the prior pivot low point.

Figure 2. EWC/ monthly

1 comment:

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