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This is a real time portfolio managing real money. The portfolio is managed by ARL Advisers, LLC, the publisher of TheTechnicalTake blog. The ARL Advisers investment strategy is a global asset allocation strategy that is strategic, balanced, and targeted. The portfolio is designed to produce equity like returns with bond like volatility.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Rydex Market Timers: What Are They Up To?
This report was from Monday night, and it was sent to those subscribers who pay for the Premium Content.
Morning News Notes: 4/29/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL...PG earnings, financial regulatory reform, the mess in Europe, Goldman may settle with SEC, and mortgage rates.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Great Insight Into The Consumer And Retail Sector
I had the privilege yesterday of receiving an email from Richard Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute, Inc. Mr. Davis had read my blog post on the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (symbol: XRT), and he has graciously allowed me to post his email below with some very interesting data and insights with regards to the consumer.
Morning News Notes: 4/28/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL...NSC earnings, financial reform and Goldman hearings, Portugal, European banks, and no more Happy Meals!
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
The 1 Chart That Explains The Entire Stock Market Rally
Many a market participant has been wondering what is causing this relentless drive higher in the stock market. As I have pointed out in the past couple of days, there has been a lot of pontificating on trying to explain the unexplainable. This price move could not have been predicted at the March, 2009 lows, and anyone who tries to tell you that they had it right from the beginning because this indicator said so, then I have a piece of land to sell you in sunny Florida.
Morning News Notes: 4/27/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL... Goldman Sachs appears before Congress, financial regulation, Gallup poll, municiple bonds, home buyer tax credit, and FOMC preview.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Morning News Notes: 4/26/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL...the consumer bounces back, Goldman, Germany and Greece, financial reform, jobs, and Jeremy Grantham on the markets.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Investor Sentiment: Mockery
The market continues higher, which you are well aware. The sentiment indicators continue to show extreme bullish sentiment amongst the "dumb money", an indifference by the "smart money", and selling by insiders. These are bear signals. In a sense, the market continues to make a mockery of the sentiment indicators. But let's face it, all indicators - whether fundamental or technical - are broken. There is no analysis or tool that could have predicted such a strong and persistent price move 14 months ago. There is no analysis or tool that can predict when this period will end. I hear and read all sorts of reasons why the market will go higher, but from this perspective, most of it is just nonsense as market participants look to explain the unexplainable. This market only goes in one direction rendering all analysis useless. Why do market analysis when there is only decision to make? Some time in the future, these tools will find their mojo again.
Friday, April 23, 2010
It's All Bubba Meises!
There is an old Yiddish phrase for the embellished stories that my grandmother use to tell me and it is "Bubba Meises". Loosely translated, it means grandmother stories. My great grandmother use to tell me that she was so old that she helped Betsy Ross sew the flag. "Bubba Meises!" But I probably believed her just a little bit.
Morning News Notes: 4/23/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL...Greece, Goldman Sachs and Gallup political poll.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Rydex Market Timers: How Extreme?
This analysis will give you greater insight into one of the Rydex indicators that is published in the weekly report on investor sentiment. Specifically, we are going to look at the Rydex Total Bull v. Total Bear indicator.
The Pain Trade
A trading buddy and I frequently talk about the markets, and as always, the conversation turns to the "hardest trade". The "hardest trade" is that trade that has the potential to inflict a lot of pain, but ultimately in the end, it is the right trade. The pain trade is the hardest trade and the trade that yields the best results.
Morning News Notes: 4/21/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL...the cost of the Icelandic volcano, Greece, Blankfein and Congress, and AAPL earnings.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Morning News Notes: 4/19/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL...should Obama have another term?, Goldman, and financial reform.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Investor Sentiment: The Same Story
Yes, it is the same story as the "Dumb Money" indicator remains extremely bullish. And yes, it is the same story as the market has once again enticed increasing number of investors that the "all clear" has been sounded. And yes, it will likely end in the same story as the market will once again serve up the maximum amount of pain for the majority of investors. While the significance of Friday's high volume reversal has yet to be determined, the set up has the making of a market top - the majority of investors are poorly positioned and the precipitating event (i.e., the government's charges against Goldman Sachs) was not foreseen. For now, Friday's price action is just one day and one day does not make a trend. If anything, Friday's down day breathed some life into the bear case. The market is priced for perfection, and shocks aren't so well tolerated. From my perspective, this looks like the same old story of fear and greed.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Baby Steps And Intra- Day Thoughts
What is this? The S&P500 is down 1.5% intra day? Do my eyes deceive me? How could this be possible?
Morning News Notes: 4/16/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL...housing starts plus some great housing charts prepared by TL, volcanic ash, GE earnings, and auto sales.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
What I Am Watching (Part 2): EURUSD
The EURUSD cross rate has been bouncing around its weekly key pivot point for several weeks now. See figure 1, a weekly chart of the EURUSD.
Morning News Notes: 4/15/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL...initial jobless claims, air travel in Europe, improving economy?, BAC earnings, and foreclosures.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Is It Time To Short The S&P500?
A real headwind for the markets -now and in the past - has been when the trends of gold, crude oil, and yields on the 10 year Treasury are strong and rising.
Morning News Notes: 4/14/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL...home buyers tax credit, Greece, comments by Fed's Lacker, Obama on the Yuan, the "Wall of Debt", Germany's Merkel, and how Americans feel about income taxes.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
What I Am Watching (Part 1): TBT and TLT
It's a new month, therefore, it must be time to switch my position on Treasury bonds.
Morning News Notes: 4/13/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL...2010 mid term elections, China, Greece, state and municipal debt, and US deficit.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Investor Sentiment: 4.11.10
The equity markets continue their ascent on decreasing volume, and the only rationale for such persistent bullishness is the unwillingness of investors to embrace the current rally. Is this the "wall of worry" or fool hearted speculation? The data would suggest the latter as newsletter writers to Rydex market timers to option traders are "all in".
Monday, April 5, 2010
On Vacation!
I will be on holiday, and I will not be posting to the blog until Sunday, April 11th. Have a good week!
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Portfolio Review: April 5, 2010
This is a real time portfolio managing real money. The portfolio is managed by ARL Advisers, LLC, the publisher of TheTechnicalTake blog. The ARL Advisers investment strategy is a global asset allocation strategy that is strategic, balanced, and targeted. The portfolio is designed to produce equity like returns with bond like volatility.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Investor Sentiment: A Different Look
Very often when looking at sentiment indicators, many market practitioners view the data as an all or nothing phenomenon. Either we are all in or too extreme in our opinions, and it is in those extremes that market turning points occur. That is how it is suppose to work. But as we have found out in 2009 (like in 1995 and 2003), prices can continue meaningfully higher despite extreme readings in the indicators. It should be obvious that looking for extremes to call turning points in the markets doesn't work all the time.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Morning News Notes: 4/1/2010
The "Morning News Notes" as prepared by TL...jobless claims, North Korea, AAPL's IPAD, and the 2010 Congressional elections.
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