Friday, September 10, 2010

Some Simple TA: TLT

I have been bullish for some time on long term US Treasury bonds, and despite the recent pullback, I remain so.

The longer term indicators that I wrote about several weeks ago have not changed, but they would be unlikely do so at this juncture.  Furthermore, when I showed that data, those indicators had just started to turn up suggesting that the upward trend in long term Treasury bonds was in its infancy.

On a short term basis, the i-Shares Lehman 20 plus year Treasury Bond Fund (symbol: TLT) has pulled back to support or its last "breakout" point.  I suspect there will be buying interest at these levels.  See figure 1 a daily chart of TLT where I highlight several technical tidbits that suggest that TLT may find buying support.

Figure 1. TLT/ daily

Technical Tidbit #1: TLT has pulled back to a key pivot point and the rising (green) trend line that has defined the explosive move over the past couple of months.  

Technical Tidbit #2: The indicator in the lower panel utilizes data from Market Vane and assesses investor bullish/ bearishness on Treasury bonds; with the indicator below the lower trading band, these investors have turned bearish on Treasury bonds.

In summary, this seems like a low risk entry point on TLT.  The longer term trend is up, sentiment has turned bearish, and prices are at support levels.  As always, failure at this level would be telling.

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