I have been bullish for some time on long term US Treasury bonds, and despite the recent pullback, I remain so.
The longer term indicators that I wrote about several weeks ago have not changed, but they would be unlikely do so at this juncture. Furthermore, when I showed that data, those indicators had just started to turn up suggesting that the upward trend in long term Treasury bonds was in its infancy.
On a short term basis, the i-Shares Lehman 20 plus year Treasury Bond Fund (symbol: TLT) has pulled back to support or its last "breakout" point. I suspect there will be buying interest at these levels. See figure 1 a daily chart of TLT where I highlight several technical tidbits that suggest that TLT may find buying support.
Figure 1. TLT/ daily
Technical Tidbit #1: TLT has pulled back to a key pivot point and the rising (green) trend line that has defined the explosive move over the past couple of months.
Technical Tidbit #2: The indicator in the lower panel utilizes data from Market Vane and assesses investor bullish/ bearishness on Treasury bonds; with the indicator below the lower trading band, these investors have turned bearish on Treasury bonds.
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