Tuesday, April 26, 2011

It Is One and the Same

Figure 1 is a monthly chart comparing Netflix (symbol: NFLX) in blue with the i-Shares Silver Trust (symbol: SLV) in red.


Figure 1. NFLX v. SLV/ monthly

What a correlation!  Both issues have gone parabolic, and they both started this nutsiness last August after Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech to initiate QE2.  While it might be useful to pretend that there must be some link between silver and watching movies on those beautiful HDTV's in your home, the reality is that the only link is QE2.  Yet, when listening to the media you never hear the words bubble or speculators associated with NFLX, but you do hear those words associated with SLV.  

NFLX is everything American -- innovator,technology leader, high flying tech stock.  This is not a bad thing, but it is often celebrated a little too much.  Somehow its parabolic-ness is well deserved.  In reality, it is a fair product with few barriers for entry, and its price is being driven by too many dollars chasing too few assets.  But we like to believe it is ok.

SLV's price rise is also a symptom of excess liquidity but somehow its price rise is being driven by evil speculators.  It isn't deemed as a good thing, and there is a sense of "incredulousness" that it is happening at all.
  
I just find it rather fascinating that NFLX and SLV are the same chart.  Or maybe I find it fascinating that we choose to celebrate one (NFLX) but not the other (SLV).  Or maybe I find it fascinating because we choose to bury our heads in the sand about the whole QE2 thing.  What I do know is that it is all one and the same thing. 

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