An Investment Thesis for December...Not!

Here is an investment thesis for you: "Pro's performance worries will drive stocks" according to Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James.

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Investor Sentiment: This Is Not The Consensus Opinion

Several weeks ago I watched a video where Maria Bartiromo of CNBC interviewed Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling and Company.  Bartiromo was soliciting Shilling about his opinion on the housing market, and as you can imagine, Shilling was less than sanguine, and in fact, he was calling for further declines in prices.  Shilling was clearly at odds with other analysts, and Bartiromo asked (and I paraphrase): "You realize your opinion is at odds with all the other analysts out there?".  Shilling's response (and I paraphrase again): "What good is an opinion if it is just consensus?" 

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Morning News Notes: 12.3.10

The morning news notes as prepared by TL...non farm payrolls, monetary policy shift by China, S&P put Greece on negative watch, Bernanke to appear on 60 Minutes this Sunday, and the President's deficit commission.

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Still About the Dollar

While the S&P500 goes on to test the recent highs, let's make no mistake about it that the last 2 days of positive price action have been predicated on a falling Dollar.  Of course, this set of circumstances is no different than the dynamic that has occurred since the March, 2009 lows: that the Dollar and S&P500 have been negatively correlated.  A falling Dollar is good for equities and a rising Dollar is a headwind.  Ok, nothing new here.

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Morning News Notes: 12.2.10

The morning news notes as prepared by TL...initial jobless claims, Obama's deficit commission, Obama administration and off short drilling, the European Financial Stability Facility, leading indicators of global manufacturing improving, ISM v. GDP v. Payrolls ( a nice graph), and Fed officials urge Congress to stimulate the economy.

 

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Market Musings: 12.1.10

There is no question that we all would like to see a strong stock market.  In theory, a higher market should be reflective of a better economic outlook, and if the economy is prospering, then, as a whole, society should benefit.  Unfortunately, the current market is not reflective of a strong economy and more likely reflects the wishes of policy makers who see a higher market as a sign of prosperity.

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Morning News Notes: 12.1.10

The morning news notes as prepared by TL...ADP employment, Federal Reserve to identify recipients of $3.3 trillion in aid provided during financial crisis, Eurozone sovereign debt, the deficit commission, state spending picking up, US farm income, US housing prices,  and President Obama and Republicans to compromise on taxes.

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