What's The Message?

Market analysis doesn't need to be too complicated to be good, and probably simpler is better.  Heck, we have just spent the past 12 months listening to every analyst, commentator and pundit under the sun tell us why this market is the buy of the century, and when I look at the numbers, I note the S&P500 is up only 3.68% over the past 52 weeks.  That's a lot of verbage for so little beef.  If you have been holding the S&P500 for 52 weeks, you have made 3.68% on your money.  That's a fact, not an opinion.

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Morning News Notes: 8.31.10

The morning news notes as prepared by TL....Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters, Obama's advisers to examine more options to create jobs, Euro as a reserve currency, German unemployment drops for 14 straight months, corporate profits to slow in 3rd quarter, extended unemployment benefits and the unemployment rate, and income and spending data.

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Morning News Notes: 8.30.10

The morning news notes as prepared by TL....Bernanke's speech from Jackson Hole, ECB's Trichet, White House proposes more fixes for housing, Obama's approval rating, Roubini on the economy, Google to launch Facebook competitor, BP/Gulf, tax cuts and analyst ratings.

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Investor Sentiment: Bull Signal

As expected, the "dumb money" has turned bearish on the markets, and this is a bullish signal.

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Morning News Notes: 8.27.10

The morning news notes as prepared by TL....German economy is a bright spot, SEC promises more action against financial industry, 23% of all mortgages are underwater, AAII sentiment, napping on the job, and Bernanke speach.

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This Is Bearish Price Action: XLF

Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the S&P Select SPDR Financial Fund (symbol: XLF).  The red and black dots are on the price chart are key pivot points, which represent areas of buying (support) and selling (resistance).

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The Technical Take: Shanghai Composite

I last looked at the Shanghai Composite Index in May, 2010.  (Click here and here.)  My interest in the Chinese market is the possibility that it is a leading indicator for the US indices.  Back in May with the Shanghai Composite off its highs by 17%, I stated "that US equity bulls should be concerned that the Chinese market has been diverging from the US indices.  After all, the Shanghai Composite led the US markets off the bottom back in late 2008 and early 2009."  So once again let's look at the technicals for this important market.

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