Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Dow Transports: Slippery Slope Or Ray Of Hope?

Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Dow Jones Transportation Index, and the heavy red dots indicate key pivot points, which represent the most important areas of support or buying interest. When support doesn't hold, selling gives way and it is often accelerated. This is a pattern with significance in that back testing shows that breaks below these key pivot points leads to accelerated selling.

Figure 1. Dow Jones Transport/ weekly

This was the pattern that allowed me to write these words about the Dow Jones Industrials on January 20, 2009: "when you connect these pivot points with the maroon colored trend line, you see the result-- a trend line break. This is bearish. Period! Historically, trend line breaks of such pivot points have implied increasing risk as prices can accelerate lower. "

Another pattern with significance is when prices break below a trend line formed by two consecutive, lower key pivot points. Typically, prices head lower as they literally fall out of the channel. And this is what we are seeing with the Dow Transports now. They are on that "slippery slope".

But there is hope - and why not, this is Wall Street. There is always hope.

As seen with the breakdown with the oval on it, this was quickly reversed and prices shot higher. The break down became a fake out. Therefore, a close outside the trend line and then back above will likely lead to higher prices.

This pattern was also seen at the 2001 and 2003 lows. See figure 2.

Figure 2. Dow Jones Transport/ weekly

So let's summarize. The Dow Jones Transportation Index is on that "slippery slope" to lower prices. A reversal back above the break down point would be significant and likely bring higher prices. It appears that a weekly close above 2750 would be required.


TraderMark said...

The Trannies were down another 2%+ today. they look very very very sick.

Can't believe in the market until they reverse IMO

Guy M. Lerner said...

TM: on the slippery slope for now; but a reversal offers hope